Zimbabwe is investigating a surge in pasta imports after foreign brands captured about 87% of the domestic market, raising concerns about pressure on the country's only known pasta manufacturer.

The Competition and Tariff Commission has launched a safeguard investigation to determine whether rising imports are causing or threatening serious injury to Zimbabwe's domestic pasta industry.

Government Gazette General Notice 1787 of 2026 shows that pasta imports rose from about 49.3 million kilogrammes in 2024 to 58.1 million kg in 2025.

The increase of 8.8 million kg represents about 17.9%, while the CTC recorded the increase at 17.4%.

Imported pasta was equivalent to 6.7 times domestic production in 2024 and seven times production in 2025.

Foreign products accounted for 88% of the market in 2024 and 87% in 2025.

“The available evidence therefore provides a sufficient basis for the Commission to investigate whether imports have increased in such quantities, absolute and relative to domestic production, and under such conditions as to cause or threaten serious injury to the domestic industry,” the CTC said.

The investigation covers pasta from all countries and territories, with Botswana, China, Egypt, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa listed among the principal sources.

Why cheaper imports matter

One of the key issues under investigation is the price difference between imported and locally produced pasta.

The CTC found that imported pasta was priced up to 17.8% below locally produced products, raising questions about whether imports are depressing or suppressing domestic prices.

The finding does not mean the imported products have been found to be dumped or unfairly traded.

A safeguard investigation instead considers whether a sharp increase in imports is causing or threatening serious injury to a domestic industry, regardless of whether the imports were sold unfairly.

For consumers, cheaper imports can help keep food prices down.

But if local manufacturers struggle to compete, prolonged import dominance could affect investment and production capacity in Zimbabwe.

Any safeguard measure introduced later could therefore have implications for the price, availability and variety of pasta on supermarket shelves.

Local production gains ground

The CTC's assessment also shows that the local industry has not deteriorated across every measure.

Production, sales, capacity utilisation, productivity and market share improved during the period under review.

However, the Commission found significant deterioration in profit, profit margins and return on net assets.

It will therefore investigate whether the financial difficulties were caused by increased imports or other factors.

National Foods Limited is currently the sole known domestic producer of pasta. The company began manufacturing locally in February 2024 after previously participating in the market through imports.

The CTC noted that the company's move into manufacturing was therefore a transition from importing to domestic production.

National Foods invested about US$6 million in its pasta manufacturing plant, commissioned in 2025 as part of a wider US$22.7 million investment in pasta, biscuits and cereals.

The plant can produce about 1,200 tonnes a month under the Primo and Better Buy brands.

Pasta sales subsequently increased by 33% in the six months to December, suggesting that local production is gaining ground despite continued import dominance.

National Foods chief executive Mike Lashbrook has previously called for greater localisation of the value chain.

“Let’s produce it locally. Let’s grow the wheat locally, mill it into flour and produce the pasta here.”

The company's investment also creates a link between pasta manufacturing and Zimbabwe's wheat sector, with National Foods expanding its local wheat contracting programme.

What happens next?

The investigation comes as Zimbabwe operates under regional and international trade arrangements.

The Gazette lists a 40% most-favoured-nation tariff on most of the relevant pasta tariff lines, while specified rates under SADC, COMESA and the European Union are listed as zero.

The CTC will examine whether preferential trade arrangements and changing regional trade conditions contributed to the increase in imports, as well as possible trade diversion from measures imposed in other markets.

National Foods has requested a provisional safeguard measure while the investigation continues.

The CTC will consider whether “critical circumstances” exist in which delaying action could cause damage that would be difficult to repair.

Interested parties have 30 days from publication of the notice to submit written arguments and supporting evidence.