Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector is bracing for possible dry conditions in the 2026/27 farming season following indications of a potential El Niño weather pattern that could affect rainfall across the region.
The Meteorological Services Department said global climate forecasting centres are indicating an 88 to 94 percent probability of an El Niño event developing during the upcoming rainy season, a development historically linked to below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe.
According to the MSD, El Niño conditions carry a 65 percent chance of reduced rainfall and drier-than-normal conditions, raising the need for early preparedness among farmers and key economic sectors.
The development comes as the country continues strengthening climate-proof agriculture under government programmes aimed at boosting food security and production resilience.
In a statement, the MSD said that while the projections point to possible dry conditions, the outlook remains preliminary and may still change before the start of the rainfall season.
“Because of this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and warns the public and stakeholders against making final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary models,” said the department.
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The MSD added that forecasts issued during this period are affected by what scientists term the spring predictability barrier, where atmospheric and oceanic conditions can still shift significantly before the onset of the rainy season.
The department said a more reliable and definitive national outlook will be released in August, following the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum process.
Agriculture experts say the early warning gives farmers time to intensify preparations for climate-smart farming, including water harvesting, irrigation planning, and the adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties.
The MSD urged the public and farming communities to remain calm and avoid panic-driven decisions while continuing with normal seasonal preparations.
“The MSD recommends continuing with standard preparations for the upcoming season while beginning to adopt climate-resilient practices, such as water conservation and the identification of drought-tolerant seed varieties,” the department said.
Zimbabwe has in recent years increased investment in irrigation rehabilitation, dam construction, and climate adaptation programmes as part of broader efforts to cushion farmers from recurrent weather shocks associated with climate change.
Stakeholders are expected to closely monitor further climate updates in the coming months as the country prepares for another strategic agricultural season.
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