Zimbabwe’s push to abandon the US dollar and return to a mono-currency system will ultimately depend less on how often people use the ZiG and more on whether they trust it enough to save, borrow and do business in the local currency.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe says there will be no fixed date for ending the use of the US dollar, with Governor John Mushayavanhu saying the transition will only be considered once eight economic conditions have been met.

These include low and stable inflation, three to six months of import cover, exchange-rate stability, strong demand for ZiG, financial-sector stability, policy cohesion, a secure payments system and an efficient foreign-currency market.

“We will not even attempt to talk about mono-currency until and unless those conditions are addressed,” Mushayavanhu said.

He said the transition would be market-driven, with the objective of reaching a point where people are comfortable receiving either ZiG or US dollars for payments.

Mushayavanhu said Zimbabwe had increased its reserves from less than a week of import cover two-and-a-half years ago to two months as of this week.

However, the country remains below the SADC benchmark of three to six months of import cover.

He also said holders of foreign currency would not be forced to convert their money when the transition takes place. Government has previously said foreign-currency accounts and existing foreign-currency obligations will be protected.

But economists say the deeper test of the ZiG will come after transactions are completed.

Economist Lucian Kasi said the transition should be viewed as a long-term, conditions-based process rather than a policy with a hard deadline.

He said the Government’s focus on market confidence was important because the ZiG would ultimately have to be chosen voluntarily.

For Kasi, foreign-currency reserves remain a critical component of that confidence. With reserves currently at about two months of import cover, Zimbabwe still has ground to cover before reaching the RBZ’s three-to-six-month target.

Economist Fortunate Sithole said the debate around the ZiG was focusing too heavily on whether people were using the currency, rather than whether they were willing to hold it.

“The harder question is whether they are willing to keep their savings, contracts and working capital in it,” she said.

Sithole said continued use of the US dollar should not automatically be interpreted as rejection of the ZiG.

A trader, she said, may accept ZiG from customers while still preferring US dollars to replace stock or pay suppliers.

“That is not necessarily rejection of ZiG, it is risk management,” she said.

The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 assessment that about two-thirds of transactions by value in Zimbabwe’s National Payment System were still being conducted in US dollars, while foreign-currency deposits remained significant.

Sithole said this demonstrated that the US dollar was serving a function beyond facilitating transactions.

“The dollar is doing more than facilitating transactions. It is acting as insurance,” she said.

She said businesses need confidence that they will be able to access foreign currency transparently and predictably when they have genuine import obligations.

At the same time, she said, the ZiG must become a currency people are comfortable holding, supported by credible savings and lending products, stable prices and rules that people believe will remain in place.

Economist Joseph Muthale said the proposed transition was ultimately a test of monetary credibility.

He said the eight conditions were reasonable, but the challenge would be achieving them simultaneously and maintaining them for long enough to rebuild confidence.

Zimbabwe has made progress on inflation and exchange-rate stability. Mushayavanhu said single-digit inflation had been maintained since January, while the IMF said recent policy improvements had helped consolidate macroeconomic stability.

But Muthale said several months of low inflation should not automatically be interpreted as restored confidence in the currency.

“The crucial question is therefore whether Zimbabweans will voluntarily hold ZiG beyond the amounts necessary for immediate transactions,” he said.

Muthale said a currency must function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value.

While the first two functions may improve as ZiG usage expands, he said becoming a trusted store of value could prove more difficult.

Muthale said Government should address the reasons people prefer the US dollar instead of attempting to eliminate that demand administratively.

“If ZiG maintains its purchasing power, can readily be converted through a transparent foreign-exchange market and offers competitive returns on savings, economic agents will have progressively fewer reasons to avoid it,” he said.

The informal economy presents another challenge.

A large amount of everyday trading takes place outside the formal financial system, where US dollars remain widely used. Muthale said forcing formal businesses to use ZiG while informal traders continued operating mainly in US dollars could create an uneven market.

Instead, he said, formalisation and ZiG use should be made more attractive through affordable digital payments, reliable access to ZiG cash, simpler taxation, access to formal credit and lower transaction costs.

Sithole said developments before the final transition would provide important clues about whether confidence in the ZiG was actually growing.

Policymakers, she said, should monitor whether businesses begin moving contracts and working capital into ZiG, whether households increase their ZiG savings and whether banks become more comfortable offering longer-term ZiG loans.

Those behaviours, she said, could reveal more about confidence than the number of transactions made at the till.

Muthale also said Government could create stronger demand for ZiG by increasing the proportion of taxes, salaries, government payments and social transfers made in the local currency.

He said this should be accompanied by the development of ZiG-denominated savings products and other investment instruments.

At the same time, protecting foreign-currency savings would remain important.

Muthale warned that any perception that legitimate US-dollar balances could be forcibly converted could encourage people to withdraw money from banks and increase demand for physical dollars.

The informal sector and foreign currency remain central to Zimbabwe’s transition to a mono-currency system.