The World Bank has trimmed Zimbabwe's 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.6%, down from the 5.0% projected in January, reflecting a weaker global environment and moderating domestic growth following last year's strong agricultural rebound. 

Despite the downgrade, Zimbabwe is still expected to remain one of Sub-Saharan Africa's faster-growing economies.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank forecasts that Zimbabwe's economy will slow to 4.6% in 2026 and further to 4.2% in 2027, following an estimated 7.5% expansion in 2025.

The latest projection marks the first downward revision by the World Bank this year. In its January outlook, the institution had expected Zimbabwe to grow by 5.0% in 2026, but deteriorating global conditions, including geopolitical tensions, weaker trade and heightened uncertainty, prompted a reassessment.

The revised forecast places the World Bank's outlook slightly below both the Zimbabwean government's and the International Monetary Fund's current projections.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) this week maintained its 5% growth forecast for 2026, arguing that macroeconomic fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by subdued inflation, stronger foreign currency inflows and exchange rate stability.

"The domestic economy has remained resilient and is expected to grow by 5% in 2026, from the revised estimate of 8.2% in 2025," RBZ Governor John Mushayavanhu said in the Monetary Policy Committee statement released on Monday.

He added: "The robust growth momentum has supported increased foreign currency inflows, amounting to US$8.3 billion as at 31 May 2026, compared to US$6 billion during the same period in 2025, representing a 39.1% increase."

The International Monetary Fund has also retained its 5% growth projection for Zimbabwe in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, matching the government's estimate while noting that the country is expected to outperform the Sub-Saharan African average of 4.3%.

The IMF said Zimbabwe's outlook reflects "continued recovery momentum supported by improving fiscal discipline and expansion in key sectors such as agriculture and mining", although it warned that rising global risks could still weigh on African economies.

The World Bank's downgrade comes against a more challenging international backdrop.

Globally, the lender lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5%, warning that conflict-related disruptions to energy markets, weaker trade, elevated debt levels and persistent geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on economic activity. It cautioned that a further escalation of global shocks could reduce world growth to as low as 1.3%.

For Zimbabwe, the softer outlook follows a bumper 2025 in which agriculture rebounded strongly from the El Niño-induced drought that depressed output in 2024. As that recovery effect fades, sustaining higher growth will increasingly depend on investment, industrial expansion, mining, exports and productivity gains rather than cyclical recovery alone.

The differing forecasts nevertheless point to a broad consensus that Zimbabwe's economy will continue expanding in 2026, even as growth normalises following last year's exceptional performance. 

While the pace of expansion may moderate, Zimbabwe is still expected to outperform much of the region despite an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.