Robert Lansing Institute warns third-term bid by P...

Robert Lansing Institute warns third-term bid by President Mnangagwa could be tough

ZimNow News Desk

A recent report by the Robert Lansing Institute, titled “Securing a Third Term: Strategies, Risks, and Implications for Zimbabwe’s Democracy,” raises severe concerns over potential legal, political, and socio‑economic fallout should President Emmerson Mnangagwa pursue a third term of office.

Zimbabwe’s 2013 constitution limits presidents to two five‑year terms, a threshold Mnangagwa is expected to reach in 2028.

Any attempt to extend his rule through constitutional amendments would require two separate bills and a national referendum—and constitutional safeguards currently prohibit allowing an incumbent to benefit from such amendments.
Legal scholars note that Mnangagwa personally would be ineligible to benefit from lifted term-limit provisions—unless the constitution is altered or repealed entirely.

The report outlines several paths Mnangagwa or ZANU-PF loyalists might pursue: party consolidation, electoral manipulation, emergency declarations, or even proxy leadership via a placeholder before his return. These tactics echo those used by other long‑standing African leaders.
Yet such methods risk fracturing ZANU-PF internally, especially given Vice President Constantino Chiwenga’s influential standing and support from segments within the military.

The Institute warns that constitutional violations may trigger widespread public resistance. Citizens—including urban youth, trade unions, opposition activists, and war veterans—are increasingly disillusioned with governance and corruption. A third-term push may ignite protests reminiscent of previous uprisings—particularly among ZCTU and church networks.

Internationally, Zimbabwe's move toward a third term could attract more condemnation and sanctions from Western nations, but they have limited leverage.
Allies such as China, Russia, or the UAE are likely to continue to respect Zimbabwe’s sovereignty.
Nevertheless, the African Union and SADC may face increased pressure to uphold democratic norms or risk setting a destabilizing precedent in the region.

The report argues that short-term consolidation of power risks long-term instability—fueling economic deterioration, democratic backsliding, and international isolation. Historical parallels—like Burkina Faso and Burundi—show third‑term strategies often end in coups or unstable transitions, rather than orderly governance
Domestically, Mnangagwa’s strained mandate—during a period of rising inflation,

The Robert Lansing Institute report concludes that while third‑term ambitions might appear politically feasible in the short run, the legal, political, and economic consequences could prove disastrous for Zimbabwe’s democratic fabric and long‑term stability.